The 2026 ICSC Holiday Intentions Survey projects year-over-year retail sales growth of between 4.3% and 4.9% for the upcoming holiday season, with total spending expected to exceed $1.7 trillion. According to the report, shoppers plan to prioritize holiday purchases and experiences over other financial commitments.
Consumer Spending Plans and Financial Pressures
Despite economic concerns, 88% of U.S. adults intend to buy gifts and related items from October through December, and 78% expect to spend the same amount or more than in 2025. At the same time, 49% of respondents worry about affording holiday gifts.
Half of those surveyed anticipate that personal or household debt will shape their decisions. A comparable share cites employment worries as a factor in holiday budgets, while another similar proportion expects to borrow for purchases they cannot pay off right away. Nearly half also predicts that holiday expenses will delay debt repayments, savings, or retirement contributions, and some shoppers see ongoing payments extending into 2027.
Shopping Habits and Value-Driven Choices
Tradition drives spending, yet brand loyalty appears fluid. 48% of participants plan to try a new brand, and 52% intend to shop with unfamiliar retailers. Price sensitivity shows that 27% will research or compare products more thoroughly, and 25% expect to switch to lower-cost or second-hand options.
Among those aiming to spend above average, 40% foresee buying fewer items or opting for cheaper alternatives. Discounts and promotions remain key motivators, with 68% likely to visit stores for deals. Physical-store traffic is expected to stay strong, as 93% plan in-person visits for purchases or pickup, including 97% of Gen Z consumers.
For 34% of shoppers, a store trip blends with dining and entertainment. This pattern grows among younger buyers, where roughly the same share view shopping as a social activity. Younger consumers also show a heightened focus on experiences, with that same proportion planning higher spending in this category compared with 2025.
Economic Pressures and Generational Spending Trends
The ICSC survey finds that 83% of respondents can maintain financial stability for basic expenses, yet many acknowledge increased financial pressure. Job market concerns are cited by 49% of shoppers as affecting their holiday budgets, rising from 43% in 2025. These factors contribute to broader anxieties influencing spending decisions, debt management, and savings priorities.
Technology Adoption and Retail Strategies
61% of participants plan to use AI tools or assistants to manage gift lists, up from 47% in 2025. Price comparison drives AI usage at 29%, followed by product research (19%), availability checks (18%) and deal hunting (16%). Pre-purchase research remains widespread, as 86% intend additional investigations before finalizing transactions.
“Consumers have made it clear they are willing to make sacrifices for the things that matter to them this holiday season, but they are making careful decisions about when and where they spend to make that money go further,” said Tom McGee, ICSC president and CEO. “Shoppers remain resilient, but they’re more discerning and value-conscious: competitive prices, convenient shopping options and experiences that bring people together are non-negotiable for retailers to attract shoppers and give them reasons to return throughout the season.”
